Before the new British PM gets down to business and faces all the issues concerning Brexit and more specifically the Trident vote scheduled for Monday, she will have to pick her cabinet.
Mrs May will need to weigh up the need for continuity (and finding room for big-hitters) with the need for unity in the party, so promoting a number of the leading Brexiteers. There will also be the secondary issues of gender balance, ethnicity and even social background.
Her first decision will be what to do with George Osborne. Clearly he would only accept one of the big offices of government. He is likely to covet the foreign office, but Brexiteers would be deeply unhappy with this. And I don't believe that Theresa May would like him still as Chancellor given his highly political performances. There is not a great relationship there either, so I would not be surprised to see him omitted from the cabinet. She may well go with the relatively underwhelming but another safe pair of hands in Phillip Hammond who she could trust to stay at the Foreign Office.
A possible contender for Chancellor is Michael Gove, although he may be retained in his existing role as Justice Secretary, or even axed given his poor relationship with May and her stress on trust. Sajid Javid may stay as business secretary, although Andrea Leadsom is a possibility, though she may perhaps be offered Education. Stephen Crabb may stay as work and pensions secretary. Chris Grayling or James Brokenshire could become the new Home Secretary. Boris Johnson could come in as culture secretary or communities secretary. Expect roles for other prominent Brexiteers including David Davis, Liam Fox, Pritti Patel and Theresa Villiers. Davis and Fox for example could be put in the new department in charge of leaving the EU. Both Justine Greening and Amber Rudd, prominent supporters of Theresa May can expect important roles too.
*Patrick Dennis is a British Economist currently working with Oxford Economics. He has spent nearly 40 years working as an economist in the City of London and its environs. He served as Chief Economist at the Industrial Bank of Japan and was also senior economist for both National Westminster Bank and Royal Bank of Scotland. He holds a postgraduate degree from Corpus Christi College, Oxford University.
This post had previously appeared at http://ukmacroeconomicspolitics.blogspot.ae/2016/07/mrs-may-planning-her-new-cabinet.html
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