First Post of 2026: The Macro Vibes Are In

2026 is shaping up to be a fabulous year for global growth. Not the loud, boom–bust kind — but the steady, policy‑driven, productivity‑led kind that tends to age well.

This year, the macro story isn’t about synchronized slowdowns or dramatic pivots. It’s about divergence, fiscal choices, and who’s actually putting money to work.

The Big Picture

A few themes are already standing out as we enter 2026:

🇺🇸 The US: Still the Growth MVP

The US remains firmly in the driver’s seat. We’re bullish on US GDP, with growth supported not just by demand, but by productivity gains tied to AI investment. AI isn’t just a buzzword this cycle — it’s showing up in output, efficiency, and corporate strategy.

🇪🇺 Europe: Fiscal Policy Takes Center Stage

In Europe, central banks are no longer the main characters. Fiscal policy is running the show.

• 🇩🇪 Germany stands out as the bright spot, with infrastructure spending and fiscal expansion laying the groundwork for stronger medium‑term growth.

• 🇫🇷 France, on the other hand, continues to face budget constraints that limit flexibility and weigh on broader European momentum.

Same currency union, very different fiscal realities.

💡 The Macro Lesson for 2026

If there’s one takeaway this year, it’s this:

Watch how governments spend and how they fund that spending.

When governments continue to spend without meaningfully increasing direct taxes, the funding has to come from somewhere. More often than not, it shows up through indirect taxes, fees, or inflation‑adjacent channels. There’s no such thing as a free lunch — just a delayed receipt.

Bottom Line

2026 isn’t about one global narrative. It’s about policy choices creating winners and losers. If you want to understand where economies (and markets) are heading in 2026, follow the fiscal trail — that’s where the real signal is.

For deeper analyses on global growth, fiscal trends, and AI-driven productivity, Algorithm Research continues to track the key signals shaping 2026 — providing insights that help you see beyond the headlines.