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FIFA Fever: predicting the outcome of FIFA 2022 as the quarter finals begin

The FIFA World Cup quarterfinals, which come after the Round of 16, are when teams begin

to dream more than ever about winning the tournament. The 8 teams who have qualified for

the quarter-finals are: Netherlands, Argentina, France, England, Croatia, Brazil and Morocco

and Portugal.

The quarter-final matches will be between the following teams:

 Netherlands Vs Argentina

 Croatia Vs Brazil

 England Vs France

 Morocco Vs Portugal

Ahead of the quarterfinals at the 2022 World Cup, where some dreams of World Cup fame

will survive while others will be crushed, we tried to predict the outcomes of the last few

matches and the ultimate winner using Python.


Poisson distribution, a discrete probability distribution that defines the number of

occurrences happening in a specific time or region of opportunity, was taken into

consideration to create the forecast. The formula for the Poisson distribution function is given

by: by: f(x) =(e –   λ  λ x )/x!. We considered λ as the median of goals scored in 90 minutes and x as the number of goals that could be scored in a match by the team.


We used the dataset that contained all the information of world cup matches played from

1930 to 2018 to calculate the average goal scored and conceded by team x and team y. We

then used this information to calculate λ_x and λ_y which was calculated as

average_goals_scored * average_goals_conceded. Then, all the possible combinations of

goals scored by each team during a match were considered ranging from 0-0 to 10-10. For

each combination of score, a value p was calculated as poisson(λ_x, x) * poisson(λ_y,y).

If the value of x==y, then value of p was added to probability of a draw match (p_draw). If

x>y, the value of p was added to the probability of team x winning (prob_x). And, if y>x, the

value of p was added to the probability of team y winning (prob_y).

Finally, the points for each team x and y were calculated as 3 * prob_x + prob_draw and 3 *

prob_y + prob_draw respectively. The team with the higher points was predicted to win the

match.

Below are the predictions for the matches:



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